Population density and SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: Comparing the geography of different waves in the Netherlands.

The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted public and scholarly debate about the relationship between infectious disease and the urban. Cities are considered contagious because they are hubs in (inter)national networks and contain high densities of people. However, the role of the urban and population density in the spread of pathogens is complex and is mediated by the wider bio-social environment. This paper analyses the role of population density in the outbreak of COVID-19 in the densely and highly urbanised context of the Netherlands. It compares the geography of the different phases in the epidemic and assesses when and where density plays a role. Using municipal data on the rate of infections and hospitalisations, this paper reveals that spatial patterns differ substantially in time, which does not appear to be simple diffusion. Using panel regressions, it is demonstrated that population density plays a role in those stages in which containment and mitigation measures were least strict, while in periods of lockdown other factors such as household size are associated with higher infection rates. It concludes that lockdowns may have greater effect in urban areas as key urban elements are temporarily cancelled out.

Urban-Rural Polarisation in Times of the Corona Outbreak? The Early Demographic and Geographic Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in the Netherlands.

The global health crisis due to the pandemic of the SARS-CoV-2 is associated with processes of urbanisation and globalisation. Globally well-connected areas with high population densities are hence expected to be disproportionately affected by COVID-19. This paper investigates the role of population density within the Netherlands, comparing hospitalisation and mortality related to COVID-19 across municipalities. The paper finds that infections, hospitalisation and mortality related to COVID-19 are not clearly correlated with the population density or urbanity of the municipality, also when controlling for age and public health factors. The paper concludes that while the public debate stresses the elevated risk of infections in cities, due to transgressive behaviour, the evidence in this paper suggests that the geography of the epidemic in the Netherlands is more complex. It speculates that the variation in urbanisation in most of the country might just be too small to expect significant differences.